HITEC

Submitted to Bioresource Technology:
This paper addresses a national interest in investigating the potential of displacing a large fraction of U.S. gasoline use by 2030 with ethanol. This final report completes the 90 Billion Gallon Study performed by Sandia and General Motors.

Download this paper in PDF format

LIVERMORE, Calif. — At a workshop convened by Sandia National Laboratories and the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) Sustainability Solutions Institute (SSI), some 25 leaders from academia, government, and the private sector gathered on March 18-19 to discuss key energy policy issues and proposed values- and outcomes-based approaches to energy policy.

“Our nation must become clear in defining outcomes that balance national security, environmental sustainability, and economic prosperity goals,” said Les Shephard, Sandia’s vice president for energy, security and defense technologies. Shephard and Charles Kennel, founding director of UCSD’s SSI, opened the workshop, which examined three intersecting perspectives of energy policy: security, economics, and the environment.

The goal of the workshop was to bring together leaders from diverse backgrounds to identify promising areas for energy policy, based on understanding the intersecting issues, assumptions, and priorities from these three perspectives. The “trialogue” surfaced key issues and recommendations for action, including:

• Focus policy on outcomes and values rather than mandating specific technical solutions
• Conduct an assessment of the nation’s energy security status comparable to those for environmental and economic security
• Create a distinguished, high-level independent council, patterned after the Council on Foreign Relations, which could act as a forum for analyzing and communicating critical issues to energy policy makers and the public
• Develop educational curricula at all levels addressing energy and sustainability, including green vocational-technical programs at community colleges, K-12 educational outreach, and support for national centers of excellence in sustainability solutions at land-grant universities
• Develop tangible messages that engage the public to think about their energy decisions

Recognizing the challenge of bringing together diverse perspectives, Sandia and UCSD engaged Viewpoint Learning and The Public Conversations Project in the workshop design and facilitation. The backgrounds of the participants spanned climate science, engineering, policy, energy regulation, clean technologies, public engagement, national competitiveness and international security. All agreed that the nation is at a critical time and has the opportunity and the obligation to integrate all three viewpoints when setting energy policy.

“There is an urgency in making sound energy policy decisions because they will have a great impact on our country’s future economic, environmental, and national security,” said participant professor Richard Matthew, director of the Center for Unconventional Security Affairs at UC Irvine.

Workshop participants were enthusiastic about the intuitive integration across the perspectives and plan further development of these ideas. A more detailed workshop report will be released in the coming months. Sandia and UCSD are committed to building upon this dialogue and expanding to include additional partners.

The UCSD Sustainability Solutions Institute brings the University of California’s research and educational excellence to bear in meeting the twin 21st century challenges of environmental stewardship and economic prosperity. The Sustainable Solutions Institute convenes interdisciplinary teams organized around specific sustainability questions and disseminates the discoveries through conferences, working papers, and focused educational programs.

Viewpoint Learning engages the public and other stakeholders in dialogues designed to improve decision-making, understand different viewpoints in depth, and build trust. Viewpoint Learning has applied its innovative dialogue-based methods to a wide range of issues including health care, education, the federal debt, entitlements, foreign policy, and environmental sustainability.

The Public Conversations Project (PCP) is a Boston-based nonprofit that uses dialogue to improve relationships and understanding among groups and individuals on opposing sides of divisive public issues. A small, flexible organization committed to broad impact, PCP has developed an approach that has proven effective with diverse constituents across multiple issues and cultures.

For a list of attendees or additional information on the workshop, members of the media can contact Mike Janes, 925-294-2447, mejanes@sandia.gov.

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin company, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. With main facilities in Albuquerque, N.M., and Livermore, Calif., Sandia has major R&D responsibilities in national security, energy and environmental technologies, and economic competitiveness.

Sandia news media contact: Mike Janes, mejanes@sandia.gov (925) 294-2447

LIVERMORE, Calif. — An in-depth study by Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Corp. has found that plant and forestry waste and dedicated energy crops could sustainably replace nearly a third of gasoline use by the year 2030.

The goal of the 90-Billion Gallon Biofuel Deployment Study was to assess whether and how a large volume of cellulosic biofuel could be sustainably produced, assuming technical and scientific progress continues at expected rates. The study was conducted over a period of nine months.

Researchers assessed the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of annually producing 90 billion gallons of ethanol—sufficient to replace more than 60 billion of the estimated 180 billion gallons of gasoline expected to be used annually by 2030. Ninety billion gallons a year exceeds the U.S. Department of Energy's goal for ethanol production established in 2006.

The 90 Billion Gallon Study assumes 75 billion gallons would be ethanol made from nonfood cellulosic feedstocks and 15 billion gallons from corn-based ethanol. The study examined four sources of biofuels: agricultural residue, such as corn stover and wheat straw; forest residue; dedicated energy crops, including switchgrass; and short rotation woody crops, such as willow and poplar trees. It examines the costs of producing, harvesting, storing and transporting these sources to newly built biorefineries.

Key findings

Using a newly developed tool known as the Biofuels Deployment Model, or BDM, Sandia researchers determined that 21 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol could be produced per year by 2022 without displacing current crops. The Renewable Fuels Standard, part of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act, calls for ramping up biofuels production to 36 billion gallons a year by 2022.

The 90 Billion Gallon Study, which focused only on starch-based and cellulosic ethanol, found that an increase to 90 billion gallons of ethanol could be sustainably achieved by 2030 within real-world economic and environmental parameters.

Other findings:

• Continued support of R&D and initial commercialization is critical because sustained technological progress and commercial validation is a prerequisite to affordably producing the large volumes of ethanol considered in this study. 
• Policy incentives such as a federal cap and trade program, carbon taxes, excise tax credits and loan guarantees for cellulosic biofuels are important to mitigate the risk of oil market volatility.
• The domestic investment for biofuels production is projected to be virtually the same as the investment required to sustain long-term domestic petroleum production.
• Cellulosic biofuels could compete without incentives with oil priced at $90 per barrel, assuming a reduction in total costs as advanced biofuels technologies mature.
• Large-scale cellulosic biofuel production could be achieved at or below current water consumption levels of petroleum fuels from on-shore oil production and refining.

The industrial processes by which nonfood forms of biomass are converted into sugars suitable for production of biofuels were a focus of the study.

Sandia's analysis also included land use, water availability, energy used to produce cellulosic biomass, transportation of feedstocks and other potential leverage points for the development and use of cellulosic biofuels. In conducting its research, Sandia utilized models that examined current and future technologies for development of ethanol.

Future enhancements to Sandia's BDM are planned, contingent on additional partnerships. Such improvements to the current software tool, says Sandia business development associate Carrie Burchard, would provide an even more comprehensive systems understanding of the biofuels industry.

Sandia enjoys a longstanding relationship with all the major U.S. automakers and has worked previously with GM on a variety of automotive research activities. Sandia also plays a major role in the Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI) and several other transportation energy and biofuels projects.

An executive summary of the 90-Billion Gallon Biofuel Deployment Study (150kb PDF) may also be downloaded.

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin company, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. With main facilities in Albuquerque, N.M., and Livermore, Calif., Sandia has major R&D responsibilities in national security, energy and environmental technologies, and economic competitiveness.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), one of the world's largest automakers, was founded in 1908, and today manufactures cars and trucks in 34 countries. With its global headquarters in Detroit, GM employs 252,000 people in every major region of the world, and sells and services vehicles in some 140 countries. In 2008, GM sold 8.35 million cars and trucks globally under the following brands: Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, GM Daewoo, Holden, Hummer, Opel, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn, Vauxhall and Wuling. GM's largest national market is the United States, followed by China, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Canada, Russia and Germany. GM's OnStar subsidiary is the industry leader in vehicle safety, security and information services. More information on GM can be found at www.gm.com.

Story also available at:
http://www.sandia.gov/news/index.html
Sandia media relations contact: Mike Janes, mejanes@sandia.gov (925) 294-2447
GM news media contact: Alan Adler, alan.adler@gm.com (248) 857-4218

More information is available in the Executive Summary of the 90 Billion Gallon Study (150kb PDF)